Aircraft spares consumption prediction model for the small air operators

Abstract

When an aircraft spare or component found defective on ground or during the flight that might compromise the aircraft's safety, it is important to remove it and replaced with serviceable component always. However, in order to avoid delays in the operations, it is critical that the availability of the replacement at the aircraft parts store for a quick turnaround. Aircraft spares consumption prediction is so important. While excess inventories expensive due to additional inventory holding cost, inventory obsolesce, tying up capital. As well as stockouts creates huge capital losses to the air operators through costly flight delays or cancellations, loss of brand reputation, over utilization of other aircraft in the fleet, etc. So that availability of the right quantity at the right time of the aircraft spares is so vital, for that aircraft consumption prediction plays the key role. Regression analysis and the consumption prediction is classical and practical forecasting method. Four years of Cessna 208 series aircraft Main Wheel consumption details used for the analysis. Initially data analysed with linier regression analysis and found relationship with the Aircraft Flying Time and Main Wheel consumption is significant, but it is non linier relationship. Then same data was analysed with Poisson regression analysis and the final model was developed. It can be used for the consumption prediction model as well as a decision-making tool for the inventory level estimations.