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Forecasting diesel consumption in Sri Lanka using multivariate time series models

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dc.contributor.advisor Peiris TSG
dc.contributor.author Weerawardhana TT
dc.date.accessioned 2020
dc.date.available 2020
dc.date.issued 2020
dc.identifier.uri http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/16646
dc.description.abstract In the modern trends of industrialization and development, energy has become one of the most important aspects of every economy in the world. Among the energy sources that are available today, diesel has a considerable consumption for various activities such as production of goods and transportation in many countries including Sri Lanka. Using monthly data of ten explanatory variables (January 1998 to July 2018) vector error correction model of order 2: VECM (2) was developed to model monthly consumption of diesel in Sri Lanka. The diesel consumption has been increasing due to various activities. The most significant influential variables are Exchange rates of USD to LKR, Merchandize Imports, Number of Tourists Arrivals, National Consumer Price Index, and Electricity Power Generated. The errors of the model were found to be white noise. The percentage errors of the fitted data using the VECM (2) model for both trained and validated set vary from -8.4 to +8.5%. Further it was found that Exchange rates of USD to LKR, Merchandize Imports, and Number of Tourists Arrivals show significant long run positive association with diesel consumption while National Consumer Price Index and Electricity Power Generated indicate significant long run negative relationship with diesel consumption in Sri Lanka. This model is suitable only short term prediction and it is recommended to develop the model so that it can be used for long run prediction. Nevertheless, the model provides the analyst with the ability to make decisions using various predicted intervals with different membership values by controlling the explanatory variables. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.subject BUSINESS STATISTICS - Dissertation en_US
dc.subject MATHEMATICS - Dissertation en_US
dc.subject VECTOR ERROR CORRELATION MODEL en_US
dc.subject MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES en_US
dc.subject CORRELATION en_US
dc.subject CONSUMPTION OF DIESEL en_US
dc.title Forecasting diesel consumption in Sri Lanka using multivariate time series models en_US
dc.type Thesis-Full-text en_US
dc.identifier.faculty Engineering en_US
dc.identifier.degree MSc in Business Statistics en_US
dc.identifier.department Department of Mathematics en_US
dc.date.accept 2020
dc.identifier.accno TH4341 en_US


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