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Black swan effects on the real estate environment: a conceptual framework

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dc.contributor.author Perera, T
dc.contributor.author Higgins, D
dc.contributor.editor Sandanayake, YG
dc.contributor.editor Karunasena, GI
dc.contributor.editor Ramachandra, T
dc.date.accessioned 2022-03-11T09:07:52Z
dc.date.available 2022-03-11T09:07:52Z
dc.date.issued 2016-07
dc.identifier.citation Perera, T. & Higgins, D. (2016). Black swan effects on the real estate environment: a conceptual framework. In Y.G. Sandanayake, G.I. Karunasena & T. Ramachandra (Eds.), Greening environment, eco-innovations & entrepreneurship (pp. 88-96). Ceylon Institute of Builders. https://ciobwcs.com/downloads/WCS2016-Proceedings.pdf en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/17287
dc.description.abstract Unpredictable events can have a major impact on real estate, yet they are often overlooked in many property decisions. This research looks at linking property market analysis to Black Swan (BS) Event theory, a term made famous by Taleb (2008) as those unpredictable disastrous events which have three key characteristics: rarity, extreme impact and retrospective predictability. The research takes the form of a narrative synthesis applying a literature review approach to define an extensive range of BS events into a conceptual framework so as to measure the impact on property markets with reference to risk and uncertainties. For property asset managers, this is important as BS events can be related to the impact on Place/location and Space/operation. To improve the resilience and reduce vulnerability towards these events, property strategies can embrace new disaster management research and so lower the impact of Place risk, although improved connectivity makes global organisations more vulnerable to space risk failure after a major BS Event. In this paper, BS management models are funnelled to the antifragility concept, as a positive sensitivity to increases in volatility. Finally, the study offers a conceptual framework of illustrating the relationship between BS effects and its respective fragile and antifragile strategies. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Ceylon Institute of Builders en_US
dc.relation.uri https://ciobwcs.com/downloads/WCS2016-Proceedings.pdf en_US
dc.subject Antifragility en_US
dc.subject Black swan effects en_US
dc.subject Black swan management en_US
dc.subject Randomness en_US
dc.subject Real estate environment en_US
dc.title Black swan effects on the real estate environment: a conceptual framework en_US
dc.type Conference-Full-text en_US
dc.identifier.faculty Architecture en_US
dc.identifier.department Department of Building Economics en_US
dc.identifier.year 2016 en_US
dc.identifier.conference 5th World Construction Symposium 2016 en_US
dc.identifier.place Colombo en_US
dc.identifier.pgnos pp. 88-96 en_US
dc.identifier.proceeding Greening environment, eco-innovations & entrepreneurship en_US
dc.identifier.email treshani.perera@rmit.edu.au en_US


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