Institutional-Repository, University of Moratuwa.  

Age structural transitions and inflation dynamics in selected south Asian countries

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.advisor Sivathas K
dc.contributor.advisor Dissanayake R
dc.contributor.author Ariyarathna PAHR
dc.date.accessioned 2020
dc.date.available 2020
dc.date.issued 2020
dc.identifier.citation Ariyarathna, P.A.H.R. (2020). Age structural transitions and inflation dynamics in selected south Asian countries [Master's theses, University of Moratuwa]. Institutional Repository University of Moratuwa. http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/20417
dc.identifier.uri http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/20417
dc.description.abstract The aim of this study is to find out whether there is significant effect from age structural transitions on inflation dynamics in some selected South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. It has been shown that the age structural transitions can disrupt macroeconomic equilibriums of countries, if unattended. Sri Lanka is facing a decreasing youth dependency ratio growth and increasing elderly dependency ratio growth phase as a result of age structural transitions. This poses serious concerns in terms of obvious factors such as health budget and social security payments to elders in future. In this thesis, I endeavor to study whether age structural transition has an implication on an important macroeconomic indicator which is inflation. A structural VAR model has been constructed to answer this issue. Elderly dependency ratio growth, youth dependency ratio growth, real interest rate and output gap growth are the selected variables from 2003 to 2018 for these models. Cholesky decomposition and structural decomposition used to check the robustness of the models. The empirical results showed that the growth of youth dependency ratio is inflationary for Sri Lanka. But for India and Bangladesh growth of youth dependency ratio does not have any significant effect on inflation. Growth of elderly dependency ratio does not have any significant effect on inflation for Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. But the magnitude of the impact from elderly and youth dependency ratio growth on inflation is around 5% over the period of 10 months as the variance decomposition reveals for Sri Lanka and for India and Bangladesh it is around 2%. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.subject AGE STRUCTURAL TRANSITIONS en_US
dc.subject INFLATION DYNAMICS en_US
dc.subject SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES en_US
dc.subject MATHEMATICS- Dissertation en_US
dc.subject FINANCIAL MATHEMATICS- Dissertation en_US
dc.title Age structural transitions and inflation dynamics in selected south Asian countries en_US
dc.type Thesis-Full-text en_US
dc.identifier.faculty Engineering en_US
dc.identifier.degree MSc in Financial Mathematics en_US
dc.identifier.department Department of Mathematics en_US
dc.date.accept 2020
dc.identifier.accno TH4535 en_US


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record