dc.contributor.advisor |
Bamunuwala RMJ |
|
dc.contributor.advisor |
Wijayaratna TMN |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Farhat F |
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2022 |
|
dc.date.available |
2022 |
|
dc.date.issued |
2022 |
|
dc.identifier.citation |
Farhat, F. (2022). Streamflow variability under climate change scenarios in Kelani river basin, Sri Lanka [Master's theses, University of Moratuwa]. Institutional Repository University of Moratuwa. http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/21544 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/21544 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
In recent years, the downstream floodplain of the Kelani River Basin has been suffering from
frequent floods. With the current climate change trend, flood-related damages are expected to
amplify in future. Therefore, understanding how such extreme events behave in the future is
quite essential for the basin planners and managers. Using the output from three global climate
models (CNRM-CM6-1, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3-CC, and their ensemble) from the Sixth
Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), variation of streamflow was
evaluated from historical (1985-2014) to mid-century (2030-2059) and late-century (20702100)
periods
under
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways
(SSPs
2-4.5
and
5-8.5).
Bias-corrected
precipitation
and
temperature
through linear scaling and power transformation, respectively
were fed into the HEC-HMS model to project future river discharge. Based on the ensemble
model, changes in average annual discharge indicates an increasing trend in future periods
under both scenarios considered. Significantly high changes were projected in the late century
(25-40 m
3
/s) compared to the mid-century (15-25 m
3
/s) under both scenarios. Projected
changes in monthly streamflow indicate an increasing trend for wet months (June-December)
while a decreasing trend for dry months (January-May). Further, the highest changes in
streamflow were identified in the monthly changes (-5 to 60 and -5 to 100 m
/s under SSP24.5
and
SSP5-8.5,
respectively).
Comparison
of
seasonal
changes
shows
the
highest
increase
for
Southwest
Monsoon
(40-60
m
3
/s under both scenarios and future periods) while the highest
decrease for First-Inter monsoon (<-10 m
3
/s under both scenarios and future periods).
Moreover, changes in high, median, and low flows (5%, 50%, and 95% percentiles of flow
duration curve, respectively) indicate significant changes in high flows compared to the
median and low flows. The findings of this study suggest a significant increase in high flows
during the Southwest Monsoon that can further threaten the basin with the devastating floods.
The results provide important insight for planners and other stakeholders dealing with water
resources management in the basin.
3 |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.subject |
STREAMFLOW CHANGES |
en_US |
dc.subject |
KELANI RIVER BASIN- Sri Lanka |
en_US |
dc.subject |
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT |
en_US |
dc.subject |
SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAY |
en_US |
dc.subject |
WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT – Dissertation |
en_US |
dc.subject |
CIVIL ENGINEERING - Dissertation |
en_US |
dc.title |
Streamflow variability under climate change scenarios in Kelani river basin, Sri Lanka |
en_US |
dc.type |
Thesis-Abstract |
en_US |
dc.identifier.faculty |
Engineering |
en_US |
dc.identifier.degree |
MSc in Water Resources Engineering and Management |
en_US |
dc.identifier.department |
Department of Civil Engineering - Madanjeet Singh Centre |
en_US |
dc.date.accept |
2022 |
|
dc.identifier.accno |
TH4963 |
en_US |