dc.contributor.advisor |
Perera HN |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Aruchunarasa B |
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2021 |
|
dc.date.available |
2021 |
|
dc.date.issued |
2021 |
|
dc.identifier.citation |
Aruchunarasa, B. (2021). Effects of multiple adjustments in supply chain forecasting on forecast accuracy [Master's theses, University of Moratuwa]. Institutional Repository University of Moratuwa. http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/21663 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/21663 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
Behavioral supply chain management is a subdiscipline within behavioral operations
management that is growing rapidly. Judgmental adjustments of forecasts are considered part
of this domain given the salience of forecasts to the smooth functioning of a supply chain.
System-generated forecasts are frequently modified in the industry by forecasting
professionals for numerous purposes. Accurate forecasts are significant to supply chain
management and efficient organizational planning. Multiple adjustments occur when forecasts
are subjected to more than one adjusted in its life cycle. Multiple adjustments are one of the
key forecasting issues which impact forecast accuracy. Despite this, multiple adjustments to
forecasts remain a not well-addressed research gap in academia. There are very few
preliminary studies that investigate multiple adjustments to forecasts. Thus, to investigate the
effect of multiple adjustments to forecasts to enhance forecast accuracy in the SC, the
researcher employed a laboratory experiment with four different treatments to measure the
forecasters’ behavior specifically on multiple adjustments to forecasts. 194 undergraduate and
MBA students were recruited as participants for the experiment.
In the Control Group, forecasts with first adjustments were observed while other treatments
investigate how the participants would perform when they do subsequent adjustments with
different levels of information availability. The authors found that multiple adjustments to
forecasts significantly improve forecast accuracy. This expands the knowledge of multiple
adjustments to forecasts to industry and academic professionals. Moreover, the provision of
relevant information related to the previous adjustment allows the forecasters to perform
better. The authors suggest the industries to increase information visibility among supply chain
partners to have accurate forecasts and subsequent results in supply chain optimization. The
results emphasize the importance of industry exposure and understanding the practical
situations for a forecaster to improve his/her decision-making regarding judgmental
adjustments. This study stresses the supply chain management-related degree programs to
provide industry exposure to students to understand the practical implications of forecasting
and other supply chain issues. Further works in this avenue, such as developing a forecasting
model by integrating multiple adjustments and investigating the impact of the black-box effect
in multiple adjustments are encouraged. |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.subject |
FORECASTING |
en_US |
dc.subject |
JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS |
en_US |
dc.subject |
BEHAVIORAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT |
en_US |
dc.subject |
LABORATORY EXPERIMENT |
en_US |
dc.subject |
MULTIPLE ADJUSTMENTS |
en_US |
dc.subject |
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT - Dissertation |
en_US |
dc.subject |
TRANSPORT & LOGISTIC MANAGEMENT- Dissertation |
en_US |
dc.title |
Effects of multiple adjustments in supply chain forecasting on forecast accuracy |
en_US |
dc.type |
Thesis-Abstract |
en_US |
dc.identifier.faculty |
Engineering |
en_US |
dc.identifier.degree |
MSc in Transport & Logistics Management by Research |
en_US |
dc.identifier.department |
Department of Transport & Logistics Management |
en_US |
dc.date.accept |
2021 |
|
dc.identifier.accno |
TH5031 |
en_US |