Time series model of water level fluctuation in Mahakanadarawa tank

Abstract

This research concludes an attempt to forecast water level changes using the best-fitted model of Mahakanadarawa tank by using Box and Jenkins methodology of univariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Data from 2010 to 2019 was analyzed and predicted values for the next 12 months were calculated. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) 12 was identified as the tentative model, and Finally, the best-fitting models (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12) were discovered of water level fluctuations of Mahakanadarawa tank. Forecasted values were used to decide on the supply of water. Two major purposes were considered. Drinking water requirements and water for cultivation were focused.