Abstract:
The importance of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has recently gained global
attention, since scientific reports indicate that the concentration of viruses in wastewater is
closely linked to the number of patients in a sewershed. WBE is thus expected to be a
powerful tool in the current COVID-19 worldwide pandemic for epidemic surveillance and
decision-making support. However, the feasibility of this approach remains unclear due to
the inherent uncertainty and insufficient understanding of the factors involved. In this
study, by taking aspects such as population size, sewage network layout, environmental
conditions, and virus detection efficiency into consideration, we developed a mathematical
model for estimating the number of infected individuals in the sewershed based on WBE.
To test the sensitivity of the model, the number of infected individuals required for
successful detection was determined using the Monte Carlo simulation.
Citation:
Yifan, Z., Wakana, O., Chikako, M., Masaaki, K., & Daisuke, S. (2020). Estimation of the number of SARS CoV-2 infections in a sewershed based on wastewater-based epidemiology. In D.M.D.O.K. Dissanayake & A.B.N. Dassanayake (Eds.), Proceedings of International Symposium on Earth Resources Management & Environment 2020 (pp. ). Department of Earth Resources Engineering, University of Moratuwa.