Estimation of the number of SARS CoV-2 infections in a sewershed based on wastewater-based epidemiology

Abstract

The importance of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has recently gained global attention, since scientific reports indicate that the concentration of viruses in wastewater is closely linked to the number of patients in a sewershed. WBE is thus expected to be a powerful tool in the current COVID-19 worldwide pandemic for epidemic surveillance and decision-making support. However, the feasibility of this approach remains unclear due to the inherent uncertainty and insufficient understanding of the factors involved. In this study, by taking aspects such as population size, sewage network layout, environmental conditions, and virus detection efficiency into consideration, we developed a mathematical model for estimating the number of infected individuals in the sewershed based on WBE. To test the sensitivity of the model, the number of infected individuals required for successful detection was determined using the Monte Carlo simulation.